diff --git a/.github/workflows/pr.yml b/.github/workflows/pr.yml
index 954725c9cd1..8ac8f710ad5 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/pr.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/pr.yml
@@ -51,7 +51,8 @@ jobs:
       - name: Verify release package bootstrap for changed manifests
         run: |
           mapfile -t changed_paths < <(git diff --name-only "${{ github.event.pull_request.base.sha }}...${{ github.event.pull_request.head.sha }}")
-          node ./scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs "${changed_paths[@]}"
+          PAPERCLIP_RELEASE_BOOTSTRAP_BASE_SHA="${{ github.event.pull_request.base.sha }}" \
+            node ./scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs "${changed_paths[@]}"
 
       - name: Validate dependency resolution when manifests change
         run: |
diff --git a/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs b/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs
index f888385a77f..a9d792df807 100644
--- a/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs
+++ b/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs
@@ -39,7 +39,84 @@ function inspectNpmPackage(packageName) {
   };
 }
 
-function collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(changedPaths, releasePackages = buildReleasePackagePlan()) {
+function readGitFileAtRevision(revision, filePath) {
+  const result = spawnSync("git", ["show", `${revision}:${normalizePath(filePath)}`], {
+    encoding: "utf8",
+    stdio: ["ignore", "pipe", "pipe"],
+  });
+
+  if (result.error) {
+    throw result.error;
+  }
+
+  if (result.status === 0) {
+    return result.stdout;
+  }
+
+  const output = `${result.stdout ?? ""}\n${result.stderr ?? ""}`.trim();
+
+  if (
+    /exists on disk, but not in/i.test(output) ||
+    /does not exist in/i.test(output)
+  ) {
+    return null;
+  }
+
+  throw new Error(`failed to read ${filePath} at ${revision}:\n${output || "git show failed"}`);
+}
+
+function getBaseReleaseState(
+  revision,
+  releasePackages = buildReleasePackagePlan(),
+  readFileAtRevision = readGitFileAtRevision,
+) {
+  if (!revision) return null;
+
+  const manifestText = readFileAtRevision(revision, "scripts/release-package-manifest.json");
+
+  if (manifestText) {
+    const manifestEntries = JSON.parse(manifestText);
+
+    if (!Array.isArray(manifestEntries)) {
+      throw new Error(`expected scripts/release-package-manifest.json at ${revision} to contain an array`);
+    }
+
+    return {
+      source: "manifest",
+      byDir: new Map(
+        manifestEntries
+          .filter((entry) => entry?.publishFromCi === true && typeof entry.dir === "string" && typeof entry.name === "string")
+          .map((entry) => [entry.dir, { name: entry.name, publishFromCi: true }]),
+      ),
+    };
+  }
+
+  const byDir = new Map();
+
+  for (const pkg of releasePackages) {
+    const packageJsonText = readFileAtRevision(revision, `${pkg.dir}/package.json`);
+    if (!packageJsonText) continue;
+
+    const basePackage = JSON.parse(packageJsonText);
+    if (basePackage.private) continue;
+
+    byDir.set(pkg.dir, {
+      name: basePackage.name,
+      publishFromCi: true,
+    });
+  }
+
+  return {
+    source: "public-packages",
+    byDir,
+  };
+}
+
+function collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(
+  changedPaths,
+  releasePackages = buildReleasePackagePlan(),
+  baseReleaseState = null,
+) {
   const normalizedChangedPaths = changedPaths.map(normalizePath);
   const manifestFileChanged = normalizedChangedPaths.includes("scripts/release-package-manifest.json");
   const changedReleasePackages = [];
@@ -48,7 +125,12 @@ function collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(changedPaths, releasePackages = b
   for (const pkg of releasePackages) {
     if (!pkg.publishFromCi) continue;
     const packageJsonPath = `${pkg.dir}/package.json`;
-    const isRelevant = manifestFileChanged || normalizedChangedPaths.includes(packageJsonPath);
+    const packageJsonChanged = normalizedChangedPaths.includes(packageJsonPath);
+    const basePackage = baseReleaseState?.byDir.get(pkg.dir);
+    const newlyReleaseEnabled =
+      manifestFileChanged &&
+      (!baseReleaseState || !basePackage || basePackage.publishFromCi !== true || basePackage.name !== pkg.name);
+    const isRelevant = packageJsonChanged || newlyReleaseEnabled;
 
     if (!isRelevant) continue;
     if (seen.has(pkg.name)) continue;
@@ -61,7 +143,9 @@ function collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(changedPaths, releasePackages = b
 }
 
 function main(changedPaths) {
-  const changedReleasePackages = collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(changedPaths);
+  const releasePackages = buildReleasePackagePlan();
+  const baseReleaseState = getBaseReleaseState(process.env.PAPERCLIP_RELEASE_BOOTSTRAP_BASE_SHA, releasePackages);
+  const changedReleasePackages = collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(changedPaths, releasePackages, baseReleaseState);
 
   if (changedReleasePackages.length === 0) {
     process.stdout.write("No release-enabled package manifests changed in this PR.\n");
@@ -118,4 +202,5 @@ if (process.argv[1] && normalizePath(process.argv[1]).endsWith("scripts/check-re
 export {
   classifyNpmViewFailure,
   collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths,
+  getBaseReleaseState,
 };
diff --git a/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.test.mjs b/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.test.mjs
index 90c04cb39a2..90c923089da 100644
--- a/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.test.mjs
+++ b/scripts/check-release-package-bootstrap.test.mjs
@@ -4,9 +4,10 @@ import test from "node:test";
 import {
   classifyNpmViewFailure,
   collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths,
+  getBaseReleaseState,
 } from "./check-release-package-bootstrap.mjs";
 
-test("manifest changes force validation of all release-enabled packages", () => {
+test("manifest changes without base state validate all release-enabled packages", () => {
   const releasePackages = [
     { dir: "packages/a", name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true },
     { dir: "packages/b", name: "@paperclipai/b", publishFromCi: true },
@@ -24,6 +25,29 @@ test("manifest changes force validation of all release-enabled packages", () =>
   );
 });
 
+test("manifest changes only validate newly release-enabled packages relative to base state", () => {
+  const releasePackages = [
+    { dir: "packages/a", name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true },
+    { dir: "packages/b", name: "@paperclipai/b", publishFromCi: true },
+    { dir: "packages/c", name: "@paperclipai/c", publishFromCi: false },
+  ];
+  const baseReleaseState = {
+    source: "manifest",
+    byDir: new Map([["packages/a", { name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true }]]),
+  };
+
+  const changedPackages = collectReleasePackagesForChangedPaths(
+    ["scripts/release-package-manifest.json"],
+    releasePackages,
+    baseReleaseState,
+  );
+
+  assert.deepEqual(
+    changedPackages.map((pkg) => pkg.name),
+    ["@paperclipai/b"],
+  );
+});
+
 test("package-specific changes only validate affected release-enabled packages", () => {
   const releasePackages = [
     { dir: "packages/a", name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true },
@@ -50,3 +74,31 @@ test("non-404 npm failures are treated as registry errors", () => {
   assert.equal(classifyNpmViewFailure("npm error code EAI_AGAIN"), "registry_error");
   assert.equal(classifyNpmViewFailure("npm error code E429"), "registry_error");
 });
+
+test("base release state falls back to public packages when manifest is absent", () => {
+  const releasePackages = [
+    { dir: "packages/a", name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true },
+    { dir: "packages/b", name: "@paperclipai/b", publishFromCi: true },
+  ];
+
+  const baseReleaseState = getBaseReleaseState("base-sha", releasePackages, (_revision, filePath) => {
+    if (filePath === "scripts/release-package-manifest.json") {
+      return null;
+    }
+
+    if (filePath === "packages/a/package.json") {
+      return JSON.stringify({ name: "@paperclipai/a", private: false });
+    }
+
+    if (filePath === "packages/b/package.json") {
+      return JSON.stringify({ name: "@paperclipai/b", private: true });
+    }
+
+    return null;
+  });
+
+  assert.equal(baseReleaseState?.source, "public-packages");
+  assert.deepEqual([...baseReleaseState.byDir.entries()], [
+    ["packages/a", { name: "@paperclipai/a", publishFromCi: true }],
+  ]);
+});